Islands in the Stream: Deconstructing Fantasy Team Defense

Chris Morgan
July 29, 2014
@FantasySophist

It happened last year and this year, it’s happening again.

Look at any set of ADPs and you’ll likely find the Seattle Seahawks defense drafted smack in the middle of the draft. The fact that you could have (and probably did) pluck the Kansas City defense off the waiver wire in 2013, may be the single strongest argument in favor of streaming team defenses in standard leagues. But, despite evidence to the contrary, some people still value a top fantasy defense over potentially game changing players in the middle rounds.

Don’t think a mid round pick is valuable? Here’s a name with a similar 2013 ADP to the Seattle defense: Josh Gordon.

That’s quite an opportunity cost.

Of course, that’s an extreme example. But, that’s the kind of talent you should be looking for in the middle rounds, i.e. a player with the potential to significantly outperform their ADP. Even Golden Tate or Fred Jackson, both whom also had similar ADPs to Seattle in 2013, would have paid off more handsomely than a team defense.

Defenders of drafting highly rated units like the Seattle Seahawks commonly justify the pick with an argument like this: “Well, I know the Seahawks are good, therefore they must be the safest defensive pick”. That argument commits two fantasy football sins: First, it equates a good NFL defense with being a good fantasy defense, which is not necessarily the case. In fact, in many ways it’s like comparing apples to hand grenades. Second, that argument significantly overvalues the impact of so called ‘top team defenses’.

First, let’s look at how standard team defenses are awarded fantasy points. Depending on your league’s scoring rules, these settings will probably look familiar. I’ll call this the standard model of defensive scoring:

Standard Model of Defensive Scoring

  • 1 point for sacks
  • 2 points for interceptions
  • 2 points for fumbles recovered
  • 2 points for safeties
  • 6 points for defensive touchdowns
  • 6 points for special teams touchdowns
  • A range of -4 – 10 points for points allowed

There is some variation, for example, some leagues penalize for yardage surrendered, award points for special team yardage, or modify the point values for these categories. But, this is generally the most common model of team defensive scoring.

Sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and safeties are all weighted about evenly, though these categories are clearly not equitable. Consider safeties: According to pro-football-reference.com, in 2013 there were only 20 safeties recorded and only two teams recorded more than 1. In 2012, there were 13 safeties. (In 2011, there were 21. In 2010, there were 13. In 2009, there were 14. I think you get the picture.) By contrast, for the whole league in 2013, about 500 interceptions and 300 fumble recoveries were recorded. That may seem like a lot more (and it is) but that’s still only an average rate of about one of each per game league wide.

Defensive and special teams touchdowns are weighted the heaviest, but these are also relatively abnormal. For example, in 2013  the barnstorming Kansas City Chiefs and their #1 ranked fantasy defense  returned four kicks (two punts and two kick-off returns), five interceptions, and two fumbles for touchdowns. Conversely, the #2 ranked Seattle Seahawks defense returned a grand total of zero kicks, two interceptions, and one fumble for touchdowns. The upshot here: these big plays aren’t normal occurrences. They are, by definition, extraordinary events for which fantasy points are the reward. A good NFL defense simply does more than the standard model scores.

So, what does it mean to be a ‘top fantasy defense’? Favorable match-ups and strength of schedule. Look at the dark horse Kansas City Chiefs of 2013. According to Jon Oliver of SBNation the Kansas City Chiefs’ preseason Strength of Schedule ranked 26nd overall, but actually proved to be 32nd  overall after the final standings. Their first nine games were played against teams who finished the season with a combined record of 52-80, and when the Chiefs faced bottom tier competition, their fantasy numbers soared. Generally speaking, it’s easy to beat up on the little guys. During their first nine games, the Chiefs blew the doors off of everyone to the outrageous tune of 16 points per game and were a formidable island in the stream. But, they took a nose dive on the back six and averaged 9 points per game. What happened? Peyton Manning happened twice, and in those games the Chiefs only scored 8 total points. Then they fell flat against the Chargers and the Colts to the tune of -2 total points. Ouch.

However, the Chiefs still managed very a  respectable average of about 13 points per game and they were largely undrafted in the preseason. But, even the mighty Chiefs were a tale of two defenses and were top performers (i.e. Top 6 in the weekly standings) no better than 50% of the time. The Seahawks were Top 6 performers only about 43% of the time. Yikes!

But, there are at least three problems with that assessment of ‘top performance’ . First, and most obvious, there’s no way to know how difficult a team’s strength of schedule is until about halfway through the season. But, that breaks in favor of streaming. If the Seahawks finish outside the Top 10 in fantasy defense this year because they have the hardest strength of schedule (they did win the Super Bowl, after all), they could still be a good NFL defense while being an average fantasy defense.

The second problem is that my assumption of ‘top perfomance’ could be misleading. There may have been a few weeks, possibly many weeks, when the Seahawks defense scored more than your opponent’s defense or at least did not ‘damage’ your chances of winning that particular game. In other words, the Seahawks my not have needed to be a Top 6 defense to have outscored an opponent’s defense. But, that volatility works against drafting team defenses early. One of the key differences between the team defensive position and every other position in fantasy football is the small pool of ‘players’. There are only 32 defenses and there can only be 32 defenses, or however many teams that happen to be in the league at a time. In other words, Jamaal Charles may not finish every week at the top ranked rusher, but he’ll likely finish ranked higher than 80-90% of his peers. That isn’t necessarily the case with team defenses where the standard model produces positional ties at the highest rate of all positions, with the possible exception of Kickers (but no one is trying to draft Matt Prater in the 8th round). Therefore, titles like ‘Top 6′ and ‘Top 12′ are of little help in assessing how effective a top defense actually is.

The third problem is related to the nature of the standard model of defensive scoring: because of favorable match-ups due to relative strength of schedule, mediocre real world defenses can often post stud fantasy numbers. The best example of this from 2013 is nearly any defense playing against the New York Giants. Let’s assume you streamed every defense you could have against the Giants (not likely but you could have gotten most of them off the waiver wire). The Giants surrendered 194 points to opposing defenses in 2013, which would have been good enough to rival the Chiefs in terms of overall points. In fact, if you streamed against the Giants last year (12.93 points per game), you were about as consistent as the Chiefs (13.27 points per game). And the list of teams the Giants faced wasn’t exactly a roll call of powerhouse defensive talent in 2013: Dallas twice, Philadelphia, Oakland, and  Minnesota were among the defenses out of which you could have gotten respectable performances. And, on average you would have performed better than the #2 ranked Seahawks.

Using San Francisco as a baseline of ‘worst’ top fantasy defense, the below chart compares three top fantasy defenses to teams which could have been streamed against the Giants in 2013:

average team defensive perfomances 2013

(Chart excludes bye weeks and week 17)

There is little evidence to suggest that drafting a defense early pays off. There are much cheaper ways to come by a defensive positional advantage. Only three of the Top 6 team defenses drafted before the season finished in the Top 6 last year and two were either undrafted or underdrafted. And yes, while the Seahawks did finish #2 overall, that’s still underperforming expectations.  The truth is, there are no safe picks at defense for the value of a high pick, unless you define safe as possibly 50-50.

 

#22 at #1- Why I’m Taking Matt Forte First Overall

Shaun McComb
July 26, 2014
@sportscomposer

I’m sure everyone has heard plenty of clichés informing you like public service announcements that leagues are won during the middle rounds of the draft and you can’t win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose it. While I tend to agree with those remarks, the most important pick you will make in your snake draft will be your first round selection. You want this pick to give you a weekly edge at his position in points scored and that is why I am taking Matt Forte number 1 overall.

On the surface the Chicago running back does nothing transcendent. He won’t have many, if any, Madden-esque, jaw dropping highlights, but he is far from a back that will only get what is blocked for him. He will be on the field for all 3 downs and he may be the best receiving back in the league in terms of blitz pickup, hands, and route running skills, especially when you factor in coach Marc Trestman’s affinity for throwing to the running back out of the backfield.

First let’s look at the competition for number 1 overall. You have last season’s high scorer at the RB position, Jamaal Charles who has 3 new starters on his offensive line, and we will probably see a drop in his total touchdowns (19) based on the line shakeup and the fact that he probably won’t see 104 targets in the receiving game again this season and he bested his career high in receptions by 25 in 2013. Also, there hasn’t been a player to lead the league in touchdowns in back to back seasons since Shaun Alexander did it in 2004 and 2005.

LeSean McCoy now has Darren Sproles eating into his receiving potential which is no small detail. We have seen the diminutive back catch over 70 passes every season since he left San Diego. With the speed that Chip Kelly likes to run his offense, players tend to get “stuck” on or off the field because it is more important to Kelly to get the next play off rather than change personnel. This may be a problem if the offense gets rolling with Sproles in and could limit McCoy’s touches. Also, the emergence of Nick Foles as a fantasy and reality stud could have the most run heavy team from a year ago tipping the tendency from run heavy to more a balanced or slightly pass heavy attack.

Adrian Peterson is always capable of recapturing his form from 2012, but with a new coaching regime that will showcase Norv Turner’s propensity to air it out, I wouldn’t bet my chances on the 29 year old that already saw the lowest yardage and touchdown total of his career in 2013. Peterson has always faced more defenders in the box than most running backs, but with Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, I’m not confident that they can take any of the defensive game planning away from AP.

That brings us to Forte, and if you delve into his 2013 stats under then first year coach Marc Trestman you’ll see over 1,300 rushing yards, 74 catches for 594 yards and 12 total touchdowns behind an offensive line that graded out as 19th best in the league, according to ProFootballFocus.com, while starting 2 rookies on the right side. That is a huge leap up from 30th, which the unit ranked in 2012. If the line can realize another marginal step forward in 2014 and you factor in the fact that Forte battled an ankle injury up until the week 8 bye last season it isn’t hard to envision a 1,450 yard, 75 for 600, and 16 total TD campaign for Mr. Forte in 2014. That would make him the number 1 non-QB player according to my projections. Couple that with the reports that the training wheels are being taken off of an already lethal offense that was 2nd only to the Broncos in points per game last year, and you have a recipe for huge year from Forte.

Obviously I am a fan of Marc Trestman’s system from a fantasy perspective and I believe enough in Matt Forte’s natural ability, combined with the opportunity stemming from that system, to be on board, driving, and collecting tickets for the Matt Forte bandwagon. You can get on now or try to find a seat later in the year after you bear witness, but one way or another, you’ll be climbing atop the #22 Express from Chicago to Fantasy Title Land.

NFL Draft Articles

If you are looking to get started as an NFL Draft writer/analyst & you aren’t affiliated w/a site (if you have contributed to a site but aren’t regularly published you can still take advantage of this opportunity) and have an article(s) you’d like to write/publish I’m opening up this Blog to give you a place to have them published on the web. I have the blog set up with four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football and IDP) that I plan to group all posts in.

In order to participate as a writer you will have to have a WordPress account (it’s free) and you’ll need to send me an email at Fullimpactblog AT gmail DOT com with a request for me to add you as a contributor. Once I get your request I’ll send you an invitation and then you can get started writing. After your article is finished you will need to send me another email telling me it’s ready to be published — make sure you include the category it should be listed under. I will not be doing any editing and your articles will be posted as you wrote them. With that said, if I find something to be offensive I will not publish it.

If you are interested in being a mentor for aspiring NFL Draft analysts/writers send me an email at fullimpactblog@gmail with the following information:

Name:
Twitter:
Email:
Site affiliations:
Categories: ie: NFL Draft (QB, OL & TEs)

There are four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football & IDP) that you can help mentor. If you have a specialty (like I listed in the example) include it/them. Let me know if you have any questions.

Mentors

Below is a list of mentors that contributors can seek out for advice, help or whatever they deem they need. I’ve also listed the categories that each mentor is well versed in.

If you are interested in being a mentor for aspiring writers send me an email at fullimpactblog@gmail with the following information:

Name:
Twitter:
Email:
Site affiliations:
Categories: ie: NFL (BALT & WASH or NFCE or ALL), NFL Draft (QB, OL & TEs etc.), Fantasy Football (Daily & Re-draft)

There are four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football & IDP) that you can help mentor. If you have a specialty (like I listed in the example) include it/them. Let me know if you have any questions.

 

MENTORS

Name: Steve Gallo
Twitter: @SteveGalloNFL
Email: fullimpactblog@gmail.com
Site affiliations: TheHuddle.com & Full Impact Football
Categories: NFL, Fantasy Football (Re-draft & Dynasty) & IDP

Name: Salvatore Stefanile
Twitter: @2QBFFB
Email: sal@2qbornot2qb.com
Site affiliations: XNSports.com/Sportable.is
Categories: Fantasy Football (Re-draft & 2 QB leagues)

Name: Josh Collacchi
Twitter: @JoshCollacchi
Email: jcollacchi@gmail.com
Site Affiliations:Pro Football Focus Fantasy, XNSports, eDraft.com, Level Up Fantasy, Sportable NFL, and ProjectRoto.com
Categories: NFL Draft, Fantasy Football (Daily, Re-draft & Dynasty)

Name: Leo Howell
Twitter: @LeoHowell8
Email: leohowell8@gmail.com
Site affiliations: numberFire, Bucs Nation
Categories: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, General NFL, Fantasy football re-draft and daily.

Name: Brad Wells
Twitter: @BradWellsNFL
Email: bradleyvwells@yahoo.com
Site affiliations: Formerly of SB Nation, Stampede Blue, and Mocking The Draft
Categories: NFL, NFL Draft, AFC, Indianapolis Colts

Dissecting Quarterback Value In Fantasy Football – The Zero QB Theorem

I think it is safe to say, that at one point or another, we have either heard, or uttered the saying, “I can beat you with one arm tied behind my back.”

That is the essence of the Zero QB Theorem, a theorem that isn’t nearly as complex as Fermet’s Theorem or even the Pythagorean Theorem.

Don’t worry; the Zero QB Theorem doesn’t require the use of geometry, calculus or any advanced mathematics – just simple addition and subtraction. Therefore, it’s safe to say that it won’t make history in mathematical circles, but it’s a game changer for the fantasy football community.

Zero QB Theorem – If you zero out the quarterback’s points on a winning fantasy team, they still win a majority of head-to-head matchups.

Below is an example from the 2012, SOFA Classic league hosted at MyFantasyLeague.com.

ZeroQB_Blog(KFFL) 156.78 – 16.28 = 140.50 > 131.36 (ROTOWIRE)

PERCEPTION ISN’T REALITY

As I was mining the data for this research from three different leagues – SOFA ClassicSOFA IDP (both are expert leagues) and a random non-expert MFL league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) with six point passing TDs – my findings were shocking, even to me. That led me to create some polls at my blog (FullImpactFootball) to see what sort of perceptions people had regarding what a quarterback meant to a fantasy football team.

The questions were simple:
1. How many games do you win with a zero at QB?
2. On average, how many points do you lose by (with a zero at QB)?
3. How many wins/year do the top-3 QBs (ADP) average?

Click to continue reading at thehuddle.com

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Five-year Positional Scoring Averages

The chart below is a compilation utilizing the end of season rankings for the SOFA Classic League. SOFA, or Site Owners Fantasy Association scoring is the same scoring that I am using for the Ultimate Drafter Series, that is with the exception of TE receptions which are 1 point/reception in SOFA and 1.5 in the Ultimate Drafter Series.

This chart will be referred to numerous times in articles that I am writing this summer, so I thought it would be a good idea to post it here for people to reference.

To help clarify exactly what you are looking at I’ll use the 356.84 number for QB1.  What that number represents is the average points the quarterback that finished ranked #1 at the end of the season scored.

The following are the scores by year for the #1 QB over the past five years:
2012: 353.74 (Brees)
2011: 409.42 (Rodgers)
2010: 328.32 (Vick)
2009: 344.16 (Rodgers)
2008: 307.22 (Brees)
Average: 356.84

That’s the method that was used to get the averages for this chart.

Positional Rank  Five Year Averages By Position
QB RB WR TE K D/ST
1 356.84 337.91 309.68 253.12 144.20 190.4
2 342.06 306.28 295.90 219.30 135.40 177
3 332.84 297.10 275.10 202.26 129.40 169
4 324.52 286.98 270.12 187.94 125.60 160.2
5 311.62 262.32 262.50 181.68 124.20 159
6 296.24 253.86 260.58 172.24 122.20 156.4
7 289.29 247.96 255.90 165.72 120.20 151
8 280.11 242.68 251.94 160.12 118.20 146
9 277.74 232.58 246.94 154.46 116.00 142.6
10 272.41 229.22 240.44 150.10 114.40 139.8
11 260.71 221.70 234.86 146.24 112.40 134.6
12 256.04 218.60 230.60 139.48 110.40 131.4
13 253.85 216.02 227.20 135.70 108.50 129.2
14 245.05 208.64 225.24 131.20 107.38 127.4
15 241.09 203.24 223.62 126.42 105.80 126.2
16 235.05 198.67 215.18 121.62 104.00 123.8
17 231.23 192.02 210.36 120.30 101.60 121.4
18 222.72 188.72 208.64 119.00 99.80 120.4
19 212.66 185.38 205.90 113.78 99.20 117.4
20 205.49 183.98 200.06 110.20 98.20 115.4
21 199.49 179.22 195.46 104.88 95.60 113.8
22 189.03 175.90 190.94 100.80 94.40 112.2
23 183.49 172.08 186.57 98.88 93.40 110.2
24 179.72 163.12 184.50 94.70 91.00 105
25 170.95 160.78 182.08 91.80 89.20 102
26 156.22 155.36 179.36 88.10 85.00 100.2
27 143.26 152.30 176.52 85.50 83.00 95
28 134.45 150.40 174.42 82.96 81.29 87.8
29 123.96 146.49 172.68 79.24 76.80 86.6
30 114.68 144.38 170.10 76.98 69.80 78.6
31 105.08 141.74 167.52 73.54 65.28 76.4
32 100.98 138.04 166.32 67.58 54.20 66.6
33 134.64 162.00
34 132.32 157.42
35 138.04 156.78
36 126.38 154.22
37 124.08 153.06
38 118.80 150.52
39 115.84 147.30
40 114.30 146.66
41 112.54 145.00
42 109.52 142.77
43 103.04 140.54
44 98.22 139.82
45 97.06 137.66
46 95.26 136.42
47 93.26 135.58
48 92.14 134.64
49 89.04 132.42
50 86.34 130.20
51 84.76 128.40
52 83.48 125.62
53 81.04 124.38
54 78.58 122.46
55 76.96 121.08
56 76.38 119.36
57 73.74 117.70
58 73.20 115.76
59 69.40 114.84
60 65.78 113.90
61 64.54 112.10
62 63.32 110.08
63 61.92 106.34
64 60.98 105.16
65 59.36 103.90
66 58.27 103.38
67 57.44 101.28
68 56.70 98.18
69 54.98 96.92
70 53.62 95.30
71 51.24 94.14
72 50.28 93.13
73 48.20 90.32
74 46.86 89.80
75 45.72 87.88
76 44.96 85.32
77 42.82 84.16
78 41.64 82.76
79 41.14 81.80
80 38.96 79.88
81 37.80 76.00
82 35.54 74.52
83 34.98 74.16
84 33.64 73.54

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

What Do You Think?

I am in the middle of doing some research for an article that I believe everyone will both enjoy and find helpful.

What I am planning to do is take the results of these polls and work them into the article.  Also, if you post a comment there is a chance I will quote it and/or use it in the article.

BEFORE YOU ANSWER THE POLLS:  What I want to realize is that I want the first answer that pops into your head.  Don’t think about it, don’t analyze it, don’t research it — whatever pops into your head first!

What you are going to find below is three sets of polls that are based on three different types of leagues.  One set is based on 4pt passing TDs with no deductions for interceptions, the second is based on 6pt passing TDs with no deductions for interceptions and lastly an IDP league with 4pt passing TDs and no deductions for interceptions.  Before each set I will link to the scoring system and also show the starting requirements. Each set of polls needs your answer to:

1.  How many games do you think you would win in a 13 game regular season if you had to take a zero at QB every week versus a full strength team?

2.  Assuming you lose because of the zero at your QB spot, how many points on average do you think you would lose by?

3.  How many games do you think the top two QBs (based on ADP) would win on average in a 13 game regular season?

To the polls we go…

CLARIFICATION FOR THE 3rd POLL IN EACH SET:  The question is how many games on average a fantasy owner of a top-3 QB (based on ADP) would win in a 13 game regular season.

This set of polls is based on the SOFA  (Site Owners Fantasy Association) Classic league rules.
Scoring (4pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(10 total): 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K & 1D/ST

SOFA Classic
SOFA Classic
SOFA Classic

This set of polls is based on a league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) that I selected randomly at MFL.  Note that the only thing that wasn’t random was that I was looking for a league with 6pt passing TDs, no deductions for interceptions and had at least nine starters.  I’d also like to point out that league spelled damn wrong, not me.
Scoring (6pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(9 total): 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K & 1D/ST

Best Dam Fantasy League Period!
Best Dam Fantasy League Period!
Best Dam Fantasy League Period!

This last set is based on the SOFA IDP league.  One thing I want to point out is that the past two years we added an extra DB to the starting requirements — going from 15 to 16.  So for the first 5 yrs worth of research I have done for this league the total starters would be decreased by 1.  I’ll reference the average for the full seven years as well as the differences between the first five years to the last two years when I publish the final article.  But for this exercise base your guesses off the starting requirements from the first five years.
Scoring (4pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(15 total): 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB

SOFA IDP
SOFA IDP
SOFA IDP

Thank you for taking the time to read and hopefully participate in the polls.  Don’t forget, feel free to comment and there is a chance I might use it in the article.

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

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