FULL IMPACT FOOTBALL

Adrian Peterson Faces Long Odds To Break Eric Dickerson’s Single Season Rushing Record.

It was Saturday, December 24, 2011 — Christmas Eve — and the Minnesota Vikings were facing the Washington Redskins in a week 16 tilt between two teams that had already been eliminated from playoff contention.

‘Twas the night before Christmas, with fans snug in their seats, but for the Vikings and their fans, there were no visions of sugar-plums dancing in their heads.  For on Adrian Peterson’s eleventh carry of the game… it ended with him coming up lame…writhing in pain from a hit to his left knee…by DeJon Gomes, the Redskins safety.

OK, I think that is enough of the cheesy play on ” ‘Twas The Night Before Christmas.”

In a split second you could tell that Vikings WR, Percy Harvin knew the severity of the situation as he waived feverishly to the sideline signaling that Peterson was hurt and needed help.

It was a normal run to the left side of the Vikings offensive line. There were no spin moves, no jukes or quick cuts — just a normal looking 3 yard run. In a game of inches, Peterson’s knee, was in the wrong place, at the wrong time — absorbing a flush hit from Gomes’ shoulder pads.

Eventually, Peterson was helped to his feet — the crowd at FedEx Field showed their support and cheered the All-Pro. He was flanked on each side by a Vikings staff member as he was helped off the field — putting little to no pressure on his injured left knee. Once on the sideline he was then carted to the locker room. A sight that no one wanted to see.

At that point, just based on the video evidence, it was easy to speculate that Peterson had suffered a very serious knee injury. An MRI later confirmed that he tore his ACL and MCL.

The Vikings $100 million dollar man was broken.

If you are old enough you should be able to remember a TV series called the “Six Million Dollar Man.” The series was about an astronaut that was injured in a crash and needed to be rebuilt with bionic parts. Modern sports medicine has come a long way, but there were no bionic parts for Peterson — at least that we know of.

Instead, Peterson was looking at a long and rigorous rehabilitation.  In general, recovery from a torn ACL takes between 8 to 12 months. The start of the 2012 NFL season was approximately 8 months away. The odds seemed long for Peterson to be back for the start of the 2012 season, but both the Vikings and Peterson had that as their target.

But be honest, you didn’t actually believe that Peterson would be able to return by the start of the season, and even if he did, there was no way you thought he would be anywhere near the Adrian Peterson of old.

I didn’t.  I was a doubter.  I was wrong — very wrong.

To the amazement of many — Peterson returned by the start of the season. And since the season started he hasn’t looked back.

In just 351 days since tearing both his ACL and MCL, he had rushed for a league leading 1,600 yards — the second highest rushing total of his career, and with three games to go, he very well could best his career high of 1,760 rushing yards.

Setting a career high in rushing yards would be a tremendous feat, especially when the total is 1,760 yards, but that isn’t what Peterson has his eyes on.

Being just 400 yards away from 2000 rushing yards — something only six players in NFL history have done — might be what you expect Peterson has his eyes on, but it’s not.

Peterson has said that he wants to break Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 rushing yards in a single NFL season. To do that Peterson will need to rush for 506 yards over his final three games.

Peterson’s performance this year has been nothing short of phenomenal, but the odds that he breaks Dickerson’s single season rushing record are long to say the least.

In NFL history, there have only been 28 instances when a running back was able to rush for more than 506 yards in three consecutive games in the same season.

The following table shows all three game stretches where a running back rushed for more than 506 yards.

Games	Player	Age	Year	Team	Att	Yds	Y/A
12-14	O.J. Simpson*	29	1976	Bills	81	647	7.99
9-11	Walter Payton	23	1977	Bears	93	604	6.49
11-13	O.J. Simpson*	29	1976	Bills	78	594	7.62
11-13	Ricky Williams	25	2002	Dolphins	87	587	6.75
6-8	Earl Campbell	25	1980	Oilers	98	583	5.95
12-14	Mike Anderson	27	2000	Broncos	96	577	6.01
7-9	Earl Campbell	25	1980	Oilers	96	562	5.85
14-16	Jerome Harrison	26	2009	Browns	106	561	5.29
12-14	O.J. Simpson*	26	1973	Bills	80	556	6.95
13-15	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	88	555	6.31
11-13	Clinton Portis	22	2003	Broncos	70	553	7.9
8-10	Walter Payton	23	1977	Bears	91	546	6
12-14	Ricky Williams	25	2002	Dolphins	85	545	6.41
11-13	Mike Anderson	27	2000	Broncos	86	543	6.31
2-4	Jamal Lewis*	24	2003	Ravens	79	542	6.86
1-3	O.J. Simpson*	28	1975	Bills	86	538	6.26
4-6	Eric Dickerson*	23	1983	Rams	80	533	6.66
7-9	Shaun Alexander	27	2004	Seahawks	80	531	6.64
12-14	Clinton Portis	22	2003	Broncos	94	527	5.61
2-4	O.J. Simpson*	28	1975	Bills	86	524	6.09
10-12	Deuce McAllister	24	2003	Saints	77	522	6.78
12-14	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	73	520	7.12
11-13	Fred Taylor	24	2000	Jaguars	84	519	6.18
6-8	Marshall Faulk	29	2002	Rams	85	519	6.11
14-16	Jamaal Charles	22	2009	Chiefs	74	515	6.96
10-12	Walter Payton	23	1977	Bears	93	513	5.52
5-7	Terrell Davis*	25	1998	Broncos	81	512	6.32
13-15	Jamal Lewis*	24	2003	Ravens	76	510	6.71

*Denotes player is a member of the 2,000 rushing yards club.

O.J. Simpson leads the way from the above list with five instances where he rushed for more than 506 yards in three consecutive games. Five of the six players that have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season made the above list. Chris Johnson is the only player that has rushed for more than 2,000 yards in a season that didn’t make the above list.

Another thing of note, is that the five players of the  2,000 yard club that rushed for over 506 yards in a three game stretch did so the season that they ran for 2,000 yards.

Eric Dickerson is the only player that accomplished that feat before he rushed for over 2,000 yards, and none of the 2,000 yard club players ever rushed for more than 506 yards in three consecutive games any time in their careers after they topped the magical 2,000 yard number.

O.J. Simpson is the only player to close out a season the way Peterson will need to if he wants to take down Dickerson’s record. From week 12 thru 14 (14 game schedule in 1973) Simpson ran for 556 yards.

While Peterson has never run for 506 yards or more in a three game span I can’t use that as a reason to say he won’t. Because as it was already pointed out, Dickerson is the only player to have accomplished that before rushing for 2,000 yards.

What Peterson has done, is run for more than 402 yards in a three game span nine times.  If he can average 134 yards/game (402 yards) over his final three games he will join the 2,000 yard club.

I would say that the odds of that happening are much better.  After all, in NFL history, there are 288 instances where a player ran for 402 or more yards in a three game stretch.

The following table shows all three game stretches where a running back rushed for more than 402 yards.
This is a long table but more on Peterson follows it.

Games	Player	Age	Year	Tm	Att	Yds	Y/A
12-14	O.J. Simpson*	29	1976	Bills	81	647	7.99
9-11	Walter Payton*	23	1977	Bears	93	604	6.49
11-13	O.J. Simpson*	29	1976	Bills	78	594	7.62
11-13	Ricky Williams	25	2002	Dolphins	87	587	6.75
6-8	Earl Campbell*	25	1980	Oilers	98	583	5.95
12-14	Mike Anderson	27	2000	Broncos	96	577	6.01
7-9	Earl Campbell*	25	1980	Oilers	96	562	5.85
14-16	Jerome Harrison	26	2009	Browns	106	561	5.29
12-14	O.J. Simpson*	26	1973	Bills	80	556	6.95
13-15	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	88	555	6.31
11-13	Clinton Portis	22	2003	Broncos	70	553	7.9
8-10	Walter Payton*	23	1977	Bears	91	546	6
12-14	Ricky Williams	25	2002	Dolphins	85	545	6.41
11-13	Mike Anderson	27	2000	Broncos	86	543	6.31
2-4	Jamal Lewis	24	2003	Ravens	79	542	6.86
1-3	O.J. Simpson*	28	1975	Bills	86	538	6.26
4-6	Eric Dickerson*	23	1983	Rams	80	533	6.66
7-9	Shaun Alexander	27	2004	Seahawks	80	531	6.64
12-14	Clinton Portis	22	2003	Broncos	94	527	5.61
2-4	O.J. Simpson*	28	1975	Bills	86	524	6.09
10-12	Deuce McAllister	24	2003	Saints	77	522	6.78
12-14	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	73	520	7.12
11-13	Fred Taylor	24	2000	Jaguars	84	519	6.18
6-8	Marshall Faulk*	29	2002	Rams	85	519	6.11
14-16	Jamaal Charles	22	2009	Chiefs	74	515	6.96
10-12	Walter Payton*	23	1977	Bears	93	513	5.52
5-7	Terrell Davis	25	1998	Broncos	81	512	6.32
13-15	Jamal Lewis	24	2003	Ravens	76	510	6.71
9-11	Frank Gore	23	2006	49ers	67	505	7.54
12-14	Garrison Hearst	27	1998	49ers	64	503	7.86
14-16	Tiki Barber	30	2005	Giants	73	503	6.89
2-4	Jim Brown*	27	1963	Browns	63	502	7.97
14-16	Larry Johnson	26	2005	Chiefs	89	499	5.61
1-3	Jamal Lewis	24	2003	Ravens	68	496	7.29
4-6	Terrell Davis	25	1998	Broncos	71	495	6.97
7-9	Chris Johnson	24	2009	Titans	75	495	6.6
9-11	Earl Campbell*	25	1980	Oilers	97	493	5.08
6-8	Terrell Davis	25	1998	Broncos	88	493	5.6
3-5	Barry Sanders*	26	1994	Lions	78	491	6.29
11-13	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	62	491	7.92
6-8	Chris Johnson	24	2009	Titans	66	491	7.44
1-3	Jim Brown*	27	1963	Browns	57	489	8.58
8-10	Earl Campbell*	25	1980	Oilers	93	489	5.26
10-12	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	74	489	6.61
10-12	Adrian Peterson	27	2012	Vikings	66	489	7.41
14-16	Marshall Faulk*	28	2001	Rams	75	488	6.51
13-15	Corey Dillon	23	1997	Bengals	84	487	5.8
3-5	Barry Sanders*	23	1991	Lions	89	482	5.42
6-8	Edgerrin James	22	2000	Colts	89	482	5.42
8-10	Jim Brown*	25	1961	Browns	72	480	6.67
11-13	O.J. Simpson*	26	1973	Bills	61	480	7.87
12-14	LaDainian Tomlinson	27	2006	Chargers	81	480	5.93
5-7	Reuben Droughns	26	2004	Broncos	92	479	5.21
7-9	Joe Morris	26	1986	Giants	84	478	5.69
8-10	Jim Brown*	27	1963	Browns	69	476	6.9
1-3	O.J. Simpson*	26	1973	Bills	75	476	6.35
7-9	Walter Payton*	23	1977	Bears	74	476	6.43
8-10	Adrian Peterson	27	2012	Vikings	59	476	8.07
11-13	Otis Armstrong	24	1974	Broncos	84	473	5.63
8-10	Joe Morris	26	1986	Giants	87	473	5.44
4-6	Eddie George	27	2000	Titans	100	473	4.73
10-12	Ricky Williams	25	2002	Dolphins	82	473	5.77
11-13	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	81	472	5.83
12-14	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	rams	86	472	5.49
6-8	Doug Martin	23	2012	Buccaneers	70	471	6.73
10-12	Larry Johnson	26	2005	Chiefs	97	470	4.85
12-14	Otis Armstrong	24	1974	Broncos	73	469	6.42
10-12	O.J. Simpson*	29	1976	Bills	78	469	6.01
9-11	Deuce McAllister	24	2003	Saints	73	467	6.4
3-5	Eric Dickerson*	23	1983	Rams	78	466	5.97
6-8	DeMarco Murray	23	2011	Cowboys	55	466	8.47
14-16	Earl Campbell*	25	1980	Oilers	86	465	5.41
4-6	Terrell Davis	24	1997	Broncos	82	465	5.67
11-13	Marcus Allen*	25	1985	Raiders	83	464	5.59
12-14	Marcus Allen*	25	1985	Raiders	77	464	6.03
6-8	Terrell Davis	24	1997	Broncos	97	463	4.77
8-10	Delvin Williams	25	1976	49ers	74	462	6.24
14-16	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	86	462	5.37
9-11	Charles White	29	1987	Rams	98	462	4.71
9-11	Larry Johnson	25	2005	Chiefs	94	462	4.91
5-7	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	77	461	5.99
9-11	Adrian Peterson	27	2012	Vikings	62	461	7.44
3-5	Jamaal Charles	25	2012	Chiefs	80	461	5.76
3-5	O.J. Simpson*	26	1973	Bills	73	460	6.3
11-13	Jerome Bettis	21	1993	Rams	62	460	7.42
14-16	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	72	459	6.38
12-14	Tiki Barber	30	2005	Giants	91	459	5.04
7-9	LaDainian Tomlinson	27	2006	Chargers	65	459	7.06
6-8	Larry Johnson	26	2006	Chiefs	94	459	4.88
12-14	Jamal Anderson	26	1998	Falcons	88	458	5.2
7-9	Adrian Peterson	27	2012	Vikings	55	458	8.33
8-10	Doug Martin	23	2012	Buccaneers	68	457	6.72
4-6	Earl Campbell*	26	1981	Oilers	92	456	4.96
11-13	Jamal Lewis	21	2000	Ravens	81	456	5.63
4-6	Barry Sanders*	23	1991	Lions	82	455	5.55
9-11	Ahman Green	26	2003	Packers	77	455	5.91
5-7	Earl Campbell*	26	1981	Oilers	103	454	4.41
2-4	Stephen Davis	29	2003	Panthers	84	454	5.4
7-9	Doug Martin	23	2012	Buccaneers	73	454	6.22
8-10	Shaun Alexander	28	2005	Seahawks	80	453	5.66
7-9	Adrian Peterson	23	2008	Vikings	77	452	5.87
14-16	George Rogers	27	1985	Redskins	94	451	4.8
12-14	Jerome Bettis	21	1993	Rams	68	451	6.63
6-8	Corey Dillon	25	2000	Bengals	64	451	7.05
11-13	Kevin Jones	22	2004	Lions	71	451	6.35
8-10	Larry Johnson	25	2005	Chiefs	85	450	5.29
12-14	Larry Johnson	26	2005	Chiefs	87	450	5.17
5-7	Clinton Portis	27	2008	Redskins	77	449	5.83
12-14	Corey Dillon	23	1997	Bengals	84	448	5.33
12-14	Jamal Lewis	21	2000	Ravens	87	448	5.15
6-8	Emmitt Smith*	24	1993	Cowboys	81	446	5.51
12-14	Corey Dillon	25	1999	Bengals	76	445	5.86
12-14	Ladell Betts	27	2006	Redskins	83	445	5.36
13-15	Garrison Hearst	27	1998	49ers	71	444	6.25
9-11	Fred Taylor	24	2000	Jaguars	82	444	5.41
14-16	Jamal Lewis	24	2003	Ravens	73	444	6.08
13-15	Jerome Harrison	26	2009	Browns	80	443	5.54
4-6	Jim Brown*	27	1963	Browns	69	442	6.41
10-12	Wilbert Montgomery	25	1979	Eagles	81	442	5.46
13-15	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	68	442	6.5
11-13	Priest Holmes	29	2002	Chiefs	63	442	7.02
1-3	Walter Payton*	25	1979	Bears	81	441	5.44
10-12	Fred Taylor	24	2000	Jaguars	75	441	5.88
10-12	Clinton Portis	22	2003	Broncos	73	441	6.04
13-15	Larry Johnson	26	2005	Chiefs	89	441	4.96
14-16	Jonathan Stewart	22	2009	Panthers	69	440	6.38
9-11	Gary Brown	24	1993	Oilers	79	439	5.56
12-14	LaDainian Tomlinson	28	2007	Chargers	64	439	6.86
9-11	Jim Brown*	25	1961	Browns	74	438	5.92
2-4	Bobby Humphrey	23	1990	Broncos	78	438	5.62
7-9	Corey Dillon	25	2000	Bengals	65	438	6.74
8-10	Ahman Green	26	2003	Packers	71	438	6.17
3-5	Adrian Peterson	22	2007	Vikings	57	438	7.68
9-11	Chris Johnson	24	2009	Titans	73	437	5.99
5-7	Jerome Bettis	25	1997	Steelers	92	436	4.74
11-13	Julius Jones	23	2004	Cowboys	86	436	5.07
13-15	Olandis Gary	24	1999	Broncos	71	435	6.13
7-9	Chris Johnson	27	2012	Titans	55	435	7.91
7-9	Emmitt Smith*	24	1993	Cowboys	78	434	5.56
14-16	Marshall Faulk*	27	2000	Rams	79	434	5.49
1-3	Cadillac Williams	23	2005	Buccaneers	88	434	4.93
14-16	Greg Pruitt	27	1978	Browns	55	433	7.87
5-7	Emmitt Smith*	24	1993	Cowboys	82	433	5.28
14-16	Corey Dillon	23	1997	Bengals	89	433	4.87
4-6	Ahman Green	26	2003	Packers	72	433	6.01
6-8	Thomas Jones	31	2009	Jets	75	433	5.77
12-14	Billy Sims	28	1983	Lions	85	432	5.08
8-10	Shaun Alexander	27	2004	Seahawks	77	432	5.61
10-12	Maurice Jones-Drew	25	2010	Jaguars	75	432	5.76
5-7	Earl Campbell*	25	1980	Oilers	83	431	5.19
9-11	Walter Payton*	31	1985	Bears	76	431	5.67
12-14	Rueben Mayes	23	1986	Saints	81	431	5.32
13-15	Mike Anderson	27	2000	Broncos	78	431	5.53
12-14	Kevin Jones	22	2004	Lions	78	431	5.53
4-6	Jim Brown*	29	1965	Browns	75	430	5.73
8-10	Barry Sanders*	26	1994	Lions	67	430	6.42
11-13	Ladell Betts	27	2006	Redskins	85	430	5.06
6-8	Clinton Portis	27	2008	Redskins	72	430	5.97
14-16	Michael Turner	26	2008	Falcons	76	430	5.66
10-12	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	58	429	7.4
10-12	Julius Jones	23	2004	Cowboys	93	429	4.61
6-8	Adrian Peterson	22	2007	Vikings	62	429	6.92
5-7	Barry Sanders*	26	1994	Lions	65	428	6.58
3-5	Napoleon Kaufman	24	1997	Raiders	67	428	6.39
13-15	Fred Taylor	24	2000	Jaguars	85	428	5.04
5-7	Ricky Williams	23	2000	Saints	97	428	4.41
7-9	Michael Turner	27	2009	Falcons	47	428	9.11
10-12	Don Calhoun	24	1976	Patriots	71	427	6.01
6-8	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	63	427	6.78
10-12	Marcus Allen*	25	1985	Raiders	83	427	5.14
12-14	Earnest Byner	28	1990	Redskins	99	427	4.31
1-3	Emmitt Smith*	26	1995	Cowboys	67	427	6.37
6-8	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	73	427	5.85
3-5	William Andrews	27	1983	Falcons	85	426	5.01
6-8	Gale Sayers*	25	1968	Bears	57	425	7.46
4-6	Walter Payton*	30	1984	Bears	81	425	5.25
13-15	Barry Sanders*	26	1994	Lions	60	425	7.08
8-10	Emmitt Smith*	26	1995	Cowboys	71	425	5.99
7-9	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	71	425	5.99
2-4	Terrell Davis	24	1997	Broncos	69	425	6.16
4-6	LaDainian Tomlinson	24	2003	Chargers	64	425	6.64
13-15	LaDainian Tomlinson	27	2006	Chargers	75	425	5.67
13-15	Earnest Byner	28	1990	Redskins	98	424	4.33
7-9	Eddie George	25	1998	Titans	82	424	5.17
13-15	Tiki Barber	30	2005	Giants	77	424	5.51
3-5	O.J. Simpson*	28	1975	Bills	92	423	4.6
1-3	Tony Dorsett*	27	1981	Cowboys	56	423	7.55
5-7	Roger Craig	28	1988	49ers	66	423	6.41
11-13	Corey Dillon	26	2000	Bengals	86	423	4.92
7-9	Walter Payton*	31	1985	Bears	72	422	5.86
12-14	Fred Taylor	24	2000	Jaguars	77	422	5.48
4-6	Tiki Barber	31	2006	Giants	76	422	5.55
6-8	LaDainian Tomlinson	27	2006	Chargers	58	421	7.26
10-12	Larry Johnson	27	2006	Chiefs	93	421	4.53
8-10	Gary Brown	24	1993	Oilers	72	420	5.83
14-16	Ahman Green	26	2003	Packers	63	420	6.67
6-8	Shaun Alexander	27	2004	Seahawks	70	420	6
4-6	Jim Taylor*	27	1962	Packers	54	419	7.76
13-15	O.J. Simpson*	26	1973	Bills	56	419	7.48
7-9	Shaun Alexander	24	2001	Seahawks	73	419	5.74
13-15	Shaun Alexander	28	2005	Seahawks	68	419	6.16
13-15	Ladell Betts	27	2006	Redskins	84	419	4.99
14-16	Steven Jackson	23	2006	Rams	89	419	4.71
13-15	Reggie Bush	26	2011	Dolphins	61	419	6.87
5-7	Edgerrin James	22	2000	Colts	82	418	5.1
11-13	Deuce McAllister	24	2003	Saints	71	418	5.89
8-10	Chris Johnson	24	2009	Titans	80	418	5.23
10-12	Chris Johnson	24	2009	Titans	74	418	5.65
8-10	Jim Brown*	28	1964	Browns	65	417	6.42
8-10	Walter Payton*	31	1985	Bears	73	417	5.71
1-3	Greg Bell	27	1989	Rams	76	417	5.49
13-15	Jamal Anderson	26	1998	Falcons	87	417	4.79
7-9	Steven Jackson	28	2011	Rams	81	417	5.15
6-8	Leroy Kelly*	26	1968	Browns	76	416	5.47
12-14	Willie Parker	26	2006	Steelers	77	416	5.4
8-10	Adrian Peterson	23	2008	Vikings	74	416	5.62
12-14	Earl Campbell*	24	1979	Oilers	74	415	5.61
7-9	O.J. Simpson*	28	1975	Bills	57	414	7.26
11-13	Earl Campbell*	24	1979	Oilers	84	414	4.93
2-4	Terrell Davis	25	1998	Broncos	72	414	5.75
13-15	Warrick Dunn	25	2000	Buccaneers	72	414	5.75
5-7	Marshall Faulk*	29	2002	Rams	76	414	5.45
10-12	Priest Holmes	29	2002	Chiefs	70	414	5.91
13-15	Fred Taylor	27	2003	Jaguars	74	414	5.59
10-12	Edgerrin James	26	2004	Colts	64	414	6.47
7-9	Steven Jackson	26	2009	Rams	71	414	5.83
7-9	Leroy Kelly*	26	1968	Browns	63	413	6.56
3-5	Barry Sanders*	29	1997	Lions	65	413	6.35
6-8	Shaun Alexander	24	2001	Seahawks	71	413	5.82
8-10	Edgerrin James	26	2004	Colts	69	413	5.99
13-15	Earl Campbell*	24	1979	Oilers	88	412	4.68
3-5	Bobby Humphrey	23	1990	Broncos	79	412	5.22
14-16	Emmitt Smith*	24	1993	Cowboys	73	412	5.64
8-10	Terrell Davis	24	1997	Broncos	84	412	4.9
8-10	Frank Gore	23	2006	49ers	65	412	6.34
2-4	Jim Brown*	29	1965	Browns	73	411	5.63
14-16	Joe Morris	25	1985	Giants	82	411	5.01
7-9	Eric Dickerson*	26	1986	Rams	83	411	4.95
13-15	Rueben Mayes	23	1986	Saints	88	411	4.67
5-7	Anthony Thomas	23	2001	Bears	80	411	5.14
8-10	Michael Bennett	24	2002	Vikings	45	411	9.13
7-9	Adrian Peterson	22	2007	Vikings	61	411	6.74
5-7	Eric Dickerson*	26	1986	Rams	70	410	5.86
6-8	Emmitt Smith*	23	1992	Cowboys	83	410	4.94
14-16	Clinton Portis	21	2002	Broncos	57	410	7.19
3-5	Tiki Barber	29	2004	Giants	69	410	5.94
8-10	James Wilder	25	1983	Buccaneers	93	409	4.4
5-7	Walter Payton*	30	1984	Bears	80	409	5.11
8-10	Eric Dickerson*	27	1987	Colts	92	409	4.45
6-8	Gary Brown	28	1997	Chargers	76	409	5.38
5-7	Corey Dillon	25	2000	Bengals	52	409	7.87
3-5	Don Woods	23	1974	Chargers	56	408	7.29
7-9	Eric Dickerson*	28	1988	Colts	78	408	5.23
6-8	Barry Sanders*	26	1994	Lions	71	408	5.75
12-14	Curtis Martin*	22	1995	Patriots	89	408	4.58
3-5	Jerome Bettis	29	2001	Steelers	59	408	6.92
8-10	Warrick Dunn	28	2003	Falcons	58	408	7.03
4-6	Matt Forte	25	2011	Bears	64	408	6.38
6-8	Jim Brown*	27	1963	Browns	62	407	6.56
9-11	James Wilder	25	1983	Buccaneers	92	407	4.42
8-10	Freeman McNeil	26	1985	Jets	74	407	5.5
9-11	Eric Dickerson*	27	1987	Colts	84	407	4.85
6-8	Maurice Jones-Drew	24	2009	Jaguars	70	407	5.81
8-10	Bo Jackson	26	1989	Raiders	53	406	7.66
14-16	Olandis Gary	24	1999	Broncos	69	406	5.88
12-14	Priest Holmes	29	2002	Chiefs	58	406	7
1-3	Arian Foster	23	2010	Texans	69	406	5.88
12-14	Reggie Bush	26	2011	Dolphins	61	406	6.66
5-7	Eric Dickerson*	23	1983	Rams	81	405	5
2-4	Walter Payton*	30	1984	Bears	71	405	5.7
4-6	Shaun Alexander	24	2001	Seahawks	87	405	4.66
14-16	Emmitt Smith*	23	1992	Cowboys	69	404	5.86
1-3	Emmitt Smith*	25	1994	Cowboys	87	404	4.64
5-7	Marshall Faulk*	26	1999	Rams	50	404	8.08
10-12	Lydell Mitchell	26	1975	Colts	75	403	5.37
14-16	Gary W. Anderson	27	1988	Chargers	64	403	6.3
7-9	Curtis Martin*	26	1999	Jets	95	403	4.24
2-4	Mike Anderson	26	2000	Broncos	85	403	4.74
11-13	Jim Taylor*	26	1961	Packers	68	402	5.91
7-9	John Brockington	23	1971	Packers	69	402	5.83
11-13	Ottis Anderson	24	1981	Cardinals	81	402	4.96
5-7	Eric Dickerson*	24	1984	Rams	61	402	6.59
12-14	Gerald Riggs	25	1985	Falcons	81	402	4.96
5-7	Napoleon Kaufman	24	1997	Raiders	65	402	6.18
8-10	Shaun Alexander	24	2001	Seahawks	73	402	5.51
9-11	Rudi Johnson	24	2003	Bengals	82	402	4.9
11-13	Larry Johnson	26	2005	Chiefs	87	402	4.62
7-9	Larry Johnson	26	2006	Chiefs	84	402	4.79

* Designates member of Pro-Football Hall of Fame.  AFL players (5 instances) not included in above list.

Just based on the above two tables it should be evident that the odds are long that Peterson will be able to break Dickerson’s single season rushing record — odds of him hitting 2,000 yards are much better.

However, one thing we haven’t taken a look at is what teams Peterson faces to close out his season. Are they cream-puff matchups or stout run defenses?

In looking at Peterson’s final three opponents — the Rams, Texans and Packers — the odds just seem to look longer and longer.

In 38 combined games this season (Texans play their 13th game tonight), only five running backs have topped 100 rushing yards in a game against Peterson’s final three opponents. But Peterson doesn’t just want to top 100 yards — his eyes are on a much loftier goal.

Against his final three opponents, only twice has a running back topped the 133.33 yards/game Peterson needs to average to make it to 2,000 rushing yards, and only once has  a running back topped the 168.67 yards/game he will need to average to bring down Dickerson’s record.

Sure looks like that makes the odds of Peterson even getting to 2,000 rushing yards, let alone breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record even longer.

By the way, one of running backs that went for 133.33+ was Chris Johnson (141 rushing yards), and the other was Peterson who rushed for 210 yards against the Packers in week 13.

The fact that Peterson rushed for 210 yards against one of his upcoming opponents might make his odds seem a bit better, but in all honesty, it doesn’t make them all that much better. The odds are long, no matter how you cut them.

Just remember, the odds were long for Peterson to come back from a torn ACL and MCL and rush for 1,600 yards in just 13 games. Peterson is clearly one of the most remarkable athletes we have ever seen, and odds just don’t seem to pertain to him.

I doubted Peterson once.  I am not going to doubt him again, long odds or not.

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com