NFL Draft Articles

If you are looking to get started as an NFL Draft writer/analyst & you aren’t affiliated w/a site (if you have contributed to a site but aren’t regularly published you can still take advantage of this opportunity) and have an article(s) you’d like to write/publish I’m opening up this Blog to give you a place to have them published on the web. I have the blog set up with four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football and IDP) that I plan to group all posts in.

In order to participate as a writer you will have to have a WordPress account (it’s free) and you’ll need to send me an email at Fullimpactblog AT gmail DOT com with a request for me to add you as a contributor. Once I get your request I’ll send you an invitation and then you can get started writing. After your article is finished you will need to send me another email telling me it’s ready to be published — make sure you include the category it should be listed under. I will not be doing any editing and your articles will be posted as you wrote them. With that said, if I find something to be offensive I will not publish it.

If you are interested in being a mentor for aspiring NFL Draft analysts/writers send me an email at fullimpactblog@gmail with the following information:

Name:
Twitter:
Email:
Site affiliations:
Categories: ie: NFL Draft (QB, OL & TEs)

There are four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football & IDP) that you can help mentor. If you have a specialty (like I listed in the example) include it/them. Let me know if you have any questions.

Mentors

Below is a list of mentors that contributors can seek out for advice, help or whatever they deem they need. I’ve also listed the categories that each mentor is well versed in.

If you are interested in being a mentor for aspiring writers send me an email at fullimpactblog@gmail with the following information:

Name:
Twitter:
Email:
Site affiliations:
Categories: ie: NFL (BALT & WASH or NFCE or ALL), NFL Draft (QB, OL & TEs etc.), Fantasy Football (Daily & Re-draft)

There are four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football & IDP) that you can help mentor. If you have a specialty (like I listed in the example) include it/them. Let me know if you have any questions.

 

MENTORS

Name: Steve Gallo
Twitter: @SteveGalloNFL
Email: fullimpactblog@gmail.com
Site affiliations: TheHuddle.com & Full Impact Football
Categories: NFL, Fantasy Football (Re-draft & Dynasty) & IDP

Name: Salvatore Stefanile
Twitter: @2QBFFB
Email: sal@2qbornot2qb.com
Site affiliations: XNSports.com/Sportable.is
Categories: Fantasy Football (Re-draft & 2 QB leagues)

Name: Josh Collacchi
Twitter: @JoshCollacchi
Email: jcollacchi@gmail.com
Site Affiliations:Pro Football Focus Fantasy, XNSports, eDraft.com, Level Up Fantasy, Sportable NFL, and ProjectRoto.com
Categories: NFL Draft, Fantasy Football (Daily, Re-draft & Dynasty)

 

Dissecting Quarterback Value In Fantasy Football – The Zero QB Theorem

I think it is safe to say, that at one point or another, we have either heard, or uttered the saying, “I can beat you with one arm tied behind my back.”

That is the essence of the Zero QB Theorem, a theorem that isn’t nearly as complex as Fermet’s Theorem or even the Pythagorean Theorem.

Don’t worry; the Zero QB Theorem doesn’t require the use of geometry, calculus or any advanced mathematics – just simple addition and subtraction. Therefore, it’s safe to say that it won’t make history in mathematical circles, but it’s a game changer for the fantasy football community.

Zero QB Theorem – If you zero out the quarterback’s points on a winning fantasy team, they still win a majority of head-to-head matchups.

Below is an example from the 2012, SOFA Classic league hosted at MyFantasyLeague.com.

ZeroQB_Blog(KFFL) 156.78 – 16.28 = 140.50 > 131.36 (ROTOWIRE)

PERCEPTION ISN’T REALITY

As I was mining the data for this research from three different leagues – SOFA ClassicSOFA IDP (both are expert leagues) and a random non-expert MFL league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) with six point passing TDs – my findings were shocking, even to me. That led me to create some polls at my blog (FullImpactFootball) to see what sort of perceptions people had regarding what a quarterback meant to a fantasy football team.

The questions were simple:
1. How many games do you win with a zero at QB?
2. On average, how many points do you lose by (with a zero at QB)?
3. How many wins/year do the top-3 QBs (ADP) average?

Click to continue reading at thehuddle.com

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Five-year Positional Scoring Averages

The chart below is a compilation utilizing the end of season rankings for the SOFA Classic League. SOFA, or Site Owners Fantasy Association scoring is the same scoring that I am using for the Ultimate Drafter Series, that is with the exception of TE receptions which are 1 point/reception in SOFA and 1.5 in the Ultimate Drafter Series.

This chart will be referred to numerous times in articles that I am writing this summer, so I thought it would be a good idea to post it here for people to reference.

To help clarify exactly what you are looking at I’ll use the 356.84 number for QB1.  What that number represents is the average points the quarterback that finished ranked #1 at the end of the season scored.

The following are the scores by year for the #1 QB over the past five years:
2012: 353.74 (Brees)
2011: 409.42 (Rodgers)
2010: 328.32 (Vick)
2009: 344.16 (Rodgers)
2008: 307.22 (Brees)
Average: 356.84

That’s the method that was used to get the averages for this chart.

Positional Rank  Five Year Averages By Position
QB RB WR TE K D/ST
1 356.84 337.91 309.68 253.12 144.20 190.4
2 342.06 306.28 295.90 219.30 135.40 177
3 332.84 297.10 275.10 202.26 129.40 169
4 324.52 286.98 270.12 187.94 125.60 160.2
5 311.62 262.32 262.50 181.68 124.20 159
6 296.24 253.86 260.58 172.24 122.20 156.4
7 289.29 247.96 255.90 165.72 120.20 151
8 280.11 242.68 251.94 160.12 118.20 146
9 277.74 232.58 246.94 154.46 116.00 142.6
10 272.41 229.22 240.44 150.10 114.40 139.8
11 260.71 221.70 234.86 146.24 112.40 134.6
12 256.04 218.60 230.60 139.48 110.40 131.4
13 253.85 216.02 227.20 135.70 108.50 129.2
14 245.05 208.64 225.24 131.20 107.38 127.4
15 241.09 203.24 223.62 126.42 105.80 126.2
16 235.05 198.67 215.18 121.62 104.00 123.8
17 231.23 192.02 210.36 120.30 101.60 121.4
18 222.72 188.72 208.64 119.00 99.80 120.4
19 212.66 185.38 205.90 113.78 99.20 117.4
20 205.49 183.98 200.06 110.20 98.20 115.4
21 199.49 179.22 195.46 104.88 95.60 113.8
22 189.03 175.90 190.94 100.80 94.40 112.2
23 183.49 172.08 186.57 98.88 93.40 110.2
24 179.72 163.12 184.50 94.70 91.00 105
25 170.95 160.78 182.08 91.80 89.20 102
26 156.22 155.36 179.36 88.10 85.00 100.2
27 143.26 152.30 176.52 85.50 83.00 95
28 134.45 150.40 174.42 82.96 81.29 87.8
29 123.96 146.49 172.68 79.24 76.80 86.6
30 114.68 144.38 170.10 76.98 69.80 78.6
31 105.08 141.74 167.52 73.54 65.28 76.4
32 100.98 138.04 166.32 67.58 54.20 66.6
33 134.64 162.00
34 132.32 157.42
35 138.04 156.78
36 126.38 154.22
37 124.08 153.06
38 118.80 150.52
39 115.84 147.30
40 114.30 146.66
41 112.54 145.00
42 109.52 142.77
43 103.04 140.54
44 98.22 139.82
45 97.06 137.66
46 95.26 136.42
47 93.26 135.58
48 92.14 134.64
49 89.04 132.42
50 86.34 130.20
51 84.76 128.40
52 83.48 125.62
53 81.04 124.38
54 78.58 122.46
55 76.96 121.08
56 76.38 119.36
57 73.74 117.70
58 73.20 115.76
59 69.40 114.84
60 65.78 113.90
61 64.54 112.10
62 63.32 110.08
63 61.92 106.34
64 60.98 105.16
65 59.36 103.90
66 58.27 103.38
67 57.44 101.28
68 56.70 98.18
69 54.98 96.92
70 53.62 95.30
71 51.24 94.14
72 50.28 93.13
73 48.20 90.32
74 46.86 89.80
75 45.72 87.88
76 44.96 85.32
77 42.82 84.16
78 41.64 82.76
79 41.14 81.80
80 38.96 79.88
81 37.80 76.00
82 35.54 74.52
83 34.98 74.16
84 33.64 73.54

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

What Do You Think?

I am in the middle of doing some research for an article that I believe everyone will both enjoy and find helpful.

What I am planning to do is take the results of these polls and work them into the article.  Also, if you post a comment there is a chance I will quote it and/or use it in the article.

BEFORE YOU ANSWER THE POLLS:  What I want to realize is that I want the first answer that pops into your head.  Don’t think about it, don’t analyze it, don’t research it — whatever pops into your head first!

What you are going to find below is three sets of polls that are based on three different types of leagues.  One set is based on 4pt passing TDs with no deductions for interceptions, the second is based on 6pt passing TDs with no deductions for interceptions and lastly an IDP league with 4pt passing TDs and no deductions for interceptions.  Before each set I will link to the scoring system and also show the starting requirements. Each set of polls needs your answer to:

1.  How many games do you think you would win in a 13 game regular season if you had to take a zero at QB every week versus a full strength team?

2.  Assuming you lose because of the zero at your QB spot, how many points on average do you think you would lose by?

3.  How many games do you think the top two QBs (based on ADP) would win on average in a 13 game regular season?

To the polls we go…

CLARIFICATION FOR THE 3rd POLL IN EACH SET:  The question is how many games on average a fantasy owner of a top-3 QB (based on ADP) would win in a 13 game regular season.

This set of polls is based on the SOFA  (Site Owners Fantasy Association) Classic league rules.
Scoring (4pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(10 total): 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K & 1D/ST

SOFA Classic
SOFA Classic
SOFA Classic

This set of polls is based on a league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) that I selected randomly at MFL.  Note that the only thing that wasn’t random was that I was looking for a league with 6pt passing TDs, no deductions for interceptions and had at least nine starters.  I’d also like to point out that league spelled damn wrong, not me.
Scoring (6pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(9 total): 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K & 1D/ST

Best Dam Fantasy League Period!
Best Dam Fantasy League Period!
Best Dam Fantasy League Period!

This last set is based on the SOFA IDP league.  One thing I want to point out is that the past two years we added an extra DB to the starting requirements — going from 15 to 16.  So for the first 5 yrs worth of research I have done for this league the total starters would be decreased by 1.  I’ll reference the average for the full seven years as well as the differences between the first five years to the last two years when I publish the final article.  But for this exercise base your guesses off the starting requirements from the first five years.
Scoring (4pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(15 total): 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB

SOFA IDP
SOFA IDP
SOFA IDP

Thank you for taking the time to read and hopefully participate in the polls.  Don’t forget, feel free to comment and there is a chance I might use it in the article.

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

Alex Smith to the Chiefs…Some stats to chew on.

While it isn’t “official” yet the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will be able to complete the deal once the new NFL season starts on March 12th.

Just because the deal isn’t official yet doesn’t mean that Kansas City fans and fantasy players aren’t wondering exactly what this trade means for Smith and the Chiefs.

In short, what I think is that Smith should put the Chiefs in the race for a wild card this year.  Fantasy wise I think it makes Smith a QB that will outproduce just about everyone’s expectations — in fantasy drafts he will be a great late round quarterback.

I know that JJ Zachariason has to love the last three words of the previous sentence.  After all, he owns a website called “The Late Round Quarterback” as well as an e-book of the same name that is available for purchase on his site.

Now for some stats to chew on.

During Andy Reid’s 14 years as head coach in Philadelphia his quarterbacks averaged 556 passes/season.
Over the last 4 yrs Eagles quarterbacks averaged 571.5 passes/season. That includes 618 passes last year — an outlier. Take those 618 passes away and the average drops back to 556.

Full Impact — Fantasy:  If Reid has Smith put the ball in the air close to 550 times there will be sleeper quarterback value for astute fantasy players.

Full Impact — NFL: Clearly an improved passing attack is coming to Kansas City.  Additionally realize that Chiefs quarterbacks turned the ball over 27 times in 2012.  Alex Smith has 25 turnovers in his last three seasons combined.

Under Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb had a completion percentage of 59.  Don’t forget that McNabb was notorious for throwing at receivers’ feet. Alex Smith’s career completion percentage is 59.3.  The last two years his completion percentage is five points higher at 64.3.

Full Impact — Fantasy:  Smith looks like a great fit for Reid’s offense.  He should be able to keep his completion percentage in the 64 range and that will help him be a more consistent fantasy producer.

Full Impact — NFL: Chiefs quarterbacks combined to have a completion percentage of 57.4 last year.  An increased completion percentage by Smith should extend drives which will not only help the offense be more effective but should also help the defense by decreasing the time that they are on the field.

Over the last four seasons Andy Reid’s quarterbacks have completed 22.8 percent of their passes (78.5/season) to running backs. From 2001-2004 — when the Eagles made it to four consecutive conference championships and one Super Bowl — Reid’s quarterbacks completed 31.6 percent of their passes (97.5/season) to running backs. Smith completed 7.6 percent of his passes to running backs in 2011 (34 total).  In 2012 he completed 15.9 percent to running backs (23 total in his first 8 games started). That extrapolates to 46/season.

Full Impact — Fantasy: This is absolutely great news for Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues. Charles probably tops out carries wise at 250-275 but look for him to be in the neighborhood of 70 receptions.  At this point Charles is in my top 3 at RB and I am giving strong consideration to moving him to number one overall.  Dexter McCluster could also have sneaky value with Reid at the helm.

Full Impact — NFL:  When you can get the ball in the hands of a player like Jamaal Charles — member of the 2012 NFL All-Pro team — 320-340 times good things are going to happen.  The Chiefs offense should improve leaps and bounds from their 24th offensive ranking in 2012.

Donovan McNabb had a career 6.9 YPA (Yards Per Attempt) with the Eagles.
Alex Smith’s career YPA is 6.6, however, over the last two years it’s 7.4.

Full Impact — Fantasy: If Smith can achieve a 7.0 YPA with Reid then your looking at him approaching 4000 yards passing (550 * 6.6=3630, 550 * 7=3850, 550 * 7.4=4070…I think he falls between 7-7.4).

Full Impact — NFL: I think that with Smith under center we see Reid’s offense look much more like it did with McNabb under center than what it did the past three seasons.

Hopefully you enjoyed this little stat snack.

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Joe Flacco Is Elite By Association…The Tom Brady Comparison

One of the most polarizing things in all of sports over the past couple of years has been the use of the word “elite” as it pertains to NFL quarterbacks, namely Eli Manning and Joe Flacco.

It was August 2011 and Manning was being interviewed on ESPN New York 1050 by Michael Kay, “Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback? Are you a top-five, top-ten quarterback?” is what Kay asked Manning.

Eli Manning

You can’t spell elite without Eli.

Manning answered, “Yeah, I think I am.”, and it created quite the furor among both fans and the media. Eli’s eliteness was debated ad-nauseum for much of the 2011 season — a season that ended with Peyton’s little brother hoisting not only the Lombardi Trophy but also the Pete Rozelle Trophy as Super Bowl XLVI MVP.

Then approximately nine months after Manning was asked if he was elite, Flacco was posed pretty much the same question when Drew Forrester of WSNT.NET said, “Here’s the $100 million dollar question.  So your agent Joe Linta says, “if winning matters Joe Flacco is one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL.”, Forrester then asked, ” So I say to you Joe Flacco, Is Joe Flacco one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL? (Skip to 15:17)” Unlike Kay, Forrester didn’t exactly use the word elite, but when Flacco responded by saying, “Without a doubt. What do you expect me to say?”, you just knew that a fan and media frenzy about the topic would ensue. Flacco then clarified what he meant by saying, “I would assume everybody thinks they’re a top-five quarterback. I mean I think I’m the best.  I don’t think I’m top-five, I mean I think I’m the best. I mean I don’t think I’d be very successful at my job if I didn’t feel that way.”  It didn’t take long for fans and the media to once again end up consumed in a debate about a quarterback’s eliteness.  A debate that still rages on, fueled by the fire of Flacco’s terrific postseason run — a run that ended with Flacco hoisting both the Lombardi and Pete Rozelle Trophies, just like Manning did one year prior.

With the debate about Flacco being elite or not still raging on it seemed that finding a barometer to see if Flacco measures up on the elite scale would be the wise thing to do.  It probably seems crazy to use Tom Brady — a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer — as that barometer, but comparing what Brady accomplished in his first five seasons as a starter (his entire body of work wouldn’t be a fair comparison) should prove to be a very good way to gauge if Flacco is indeed elite.  That means for the sake of comparison Brady’s seasons from 2001-2005 (14 games started in 2001) will be utilized, and for Flacco it will be 2008-2012.

Tom Brady

Brady’s playoff record from ’06-’12 is 7-6 with no SB wins

At this point you are probably retracing Brady’s career to try to figure out if he was considered elite after just five years as a starter. He was.  Look no further than the July 2006 USA TODAY article, “Among NFL QBs, Brady at head of the class“, where Tom Weir wrote, “It also finally proved Brady can be mortal on a huge stage but did absolutely nothing to diminish his status as the NFL’s most esteemed quarterback. Our panel of experts made Brady a unanimous selection as the game’s best at directing an offense.”  Click to continue reading.

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

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