Comparison: Jerry Rice & Larry Fitzgerald

With Larry Fitzgerald turning 30 on August 31st, I decided to take a look at his career numbers. While looking at them, I wondered how his pre-30 year old stats would compare to Jerry Rice’s pre-30 year old stats. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves, and you, the reader, can make up your own mind with what they say.

A few notes on the following numbers:
1. The following numbers exclude non-QB numbers.
2. Only regular season numbers are included.
3. Rice’s numbers inlcude six games from 1992 (prior to him turning 31 five days prior to week seven’s game.)

Games Played
Fitzgerald 140
Rice 114

Receptions
Fitzgerald 764 (5.46/game played)
Rice 549 (4.82/game played)

Receiving Yards
Fitzgerald 10,413 (74.38/game played)
Rice 9349 (82.01/game played)

Receiving Touchdowns
Fitzgerald 77
Rice 95

% of completions caught
FItzgerald 25.02%
Rice 23.24%

% of passing yards caught
Fitzgerald 30.03%
Rice 31.83%

% of passing TDs caught
Fitzgerald 43.02%
Rice 47.50%

Passer Rating 
Fitzgerald’s QBs 77.1
Rice’s QBs 93.5*

*Only 8 QBs in NFL history have a career passer rating higher than the 93.5 Rice’s QBs combined for.

The Zero QB Theorem Loss Log Chart

Below is a chart that logs all 704 losses by point total that a team suffered after a win was turned to a loss when their QB points were zeroed out.

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.22 0.22 0.28
0.28 0.38 0.42 0.42 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.56 0.58 0.62 0.68
0.74 0.76 0.78 0.82 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1.26 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.64 1.78 1.80 1.82
1.84 1.86 1.90 1.94 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
2.00 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.12 2.16 2.16 2.28 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.38
2.44 2.48 2.50 2.60 2.66 2.70 2.88 2.92 2.92 2.96 3.00 3.00
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.02 3.10 3.16 3.28 3.38 3.46 3.54 3.60 3.64
3.66 3.66 3.86 3.88 3.90 3.98 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.08 4.14 4.14 4.20
4.26 4.26 4.30 4.30 4.38 4.40 4.44 4.52 4.54 4.56 4.58 4.62
4.68 4.70 4.70 4.72 4.74 4.76 4.82 4.84 4.86 5.00 5.00 5.00
5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
5.20 5.20 5.30 5.32 5.32 5.38 5.38 5.44 5.46 5.50 5.50 5.60
5.78 5.80 5.80 5.82 5.82 5.90 5.90 5.96 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.04 6.08 6.08 6.10 6.22 6.32
6.32 6.34 6.40 6.42 6.54 6.54 6.60 6.64 6.66 6.66 6.68 6.70
6.72 6.78 6.80 6.82 6.84 6.86 6.90 6.90 6.94 7.00 7.00 7.00
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.08 7.08 7.10 7.14 7.16 7.18 7.20 7.24
7.36 7.38 7.44 7.50 7.50 7.54 7.64 7.68 7.74 7.82 7.84 7.88
7.90 7.92 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00
8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.14 8.22 8.22 8.24 8.34 8.46 8.48 8.50
8.54 8.54 8.60 8.62 8.74 8.80 8.80 8.86 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.06 9.18
9.28 9.44 9.54 9.60 9.62 9.62 9.64 9.74 9.76 9.84 9.86 9.96
9.96 9.98 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
10.00 10.04 10.10 10.12 10.12 10.14 10.26 10.28 10.42 10.48 10.52 10.52
10.60 10.64 10.68 10.72 10.74 10.76 10.78 10.86 10.86 10.94 10.96 10.98
11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.04
11.14 11.22 11.24 11.24 11.26 11.28 11.30 11.36 11.42 11.48 11.50 11.62
11.62 11.62 11.64 11.72 11.76 11.76 11.80 11.94 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00
12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.02 12.04 12.10
12.20 12.28 12.28 12.28 12.34 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.44 12.60 12.60 12.66
12.80 12.90 12.92 12.98 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00
13.00 13.06 13.08 13.10 13.12 13.32 13.44 13.46 13.46 13.50 13.74 13.74
13.78 13.86 13.88 13.92 13.94 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00
14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.04 14.04 14.14 14.18 14.30
14.32 14.44 14.48 14.54 14.56 14.60 14.68 14.70 14.74 14.76 14.80 14.80
14.92 14.92 14.98 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.10 15.14 15.28 15.32 15.32 15.50 15.52 15.52 15.52 15.60 15.64
15.66 15.72 15.74 15.84 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00
16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.04 16.08 16.08 16.22 16.30 16.30 16.30 16.38
16.40 16.98 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.02 17.32 17.34
17.34 17.50 17.50 17.54 17.54 17.62 17.74 17.84 17.86 17.90 17.94 18.00
18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00
18.02 18.18 18.36 18.40 18.44 18.46 18.46 18.56 18.58 18.58 18.60 18.78
18.88 18.90 18.94 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.02 19.04
19.06 19.12 19.20 19.22 19.30 19.38 19.52 19.60 19.66 19.68 20.00 20.00
20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.02 20.02 20.26 20.34 20.40 20.52 20.62
20.64 20.84 20.90 21.00 21.00 21.04 21.06 21.10 21.18 21.26 21.36 21.42
21.44 21.64 21.88 21.88 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.12 22.22 22.34 22.40
22.44 22.48 22.56 22.70 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.62 23.82 23.84 24.00
24.00 24.00 24.20 24.34 24.54 24.86 24.90 24.96 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
25.00 25.00 25.00 25.26 25.80 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.62 27.00 27.00 27.00
27.00 27.40 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.04 29.00 29.92 30.00 30.62 31.00 31.00
31.16 31.34 32.00 34.40 34.50 35.00 37.82 41.00

Here are a few key breakdowns:

328 or 48% of the losses were by less than 10 points.

372 or 52.8% of the losses were by less than 11 points.

404 or 57.4% of the losses were by less than 12 points.

436 or 61.9% of the losses were by less than 13 points.

461 or 65.5% of the losses were by less than 14 points.

495 or 70.3% of the losses were by less than 15 points.

========================================

209 or 29.7% of the losses were by 15 points or more.

184 or 26.1% of the losses were by 16 points or more.

162 or 23% of the losses were by 17 points or more.

141 or 20% of the losses were by 18 points or more.

113 or 16.1% of the losses were by 19 points or more.

94 or 13.4% of the losses were by 20 points or more.

36 or 5.1% of the losses were by 25 points or more.

========================================

What you have to remember is that just zeroing out the winning team’s QB score still saw those teams win 61% of their games (1101  of 1805).

So if you use 13 points as your QB number and add the 436 from above to the 1101 you get 1537 wins which equates to a 85.2% win% (1537 of 1805). You can do the same calculation based on any of the above point breaks or any others you want to construct from the above chart.

Hopefully this helps to add clarification that to win at fantasy football you do NOT need big points from your QB.

 

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

 

 

Dissecting Quarterback Value In Fantasy Football – The Zero QB Theorem

I think it is safe to say, that at one point or another, we have either heard, or uttered the saying, “I can beat you with one arm tied behind my back.”

That is the essence of the Zero QB Theorem, a theorem that isn’t nearly as complex as Fermet’s Theorem or even the Pythagorean Theorem.

Don’t worry; the Zero QB Theorem doesn’t require the use of geometry, calculus or any advanced mathematics – just simple addition and subtraction. Therefore, it’s safe to say that it won’t make history in mathematical circles, but it’s a game changer for the fantasy football community.

Zero QB Theorem – If you zero out the quarterback’s points on a winning fantasy team, they still win a majority of head-to-head matchups.

Below is an example from the 2012, SOFA Classic league hosted at MyFantasyLeague.com.

ZeroQB_Blog(KFFL) 156.78 – 16.28 = 140.50 > 131.36 (ROTOWIRE)

PERCEPTION ISN’T REALITY

As I was mining the data for this research from three different leagues – SOFA ClassicSOFA IDP (both are expert leagues) and a random non-expert MFL league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) with six point passing TDs – my findings were shocking, even to me. That led me to create some polls at my blog (FullImpactFootball) to see what sort of perceptions people had regarding what a quarterback meant to a fantasy football team.

The questions were simple:
1. How many games do you win with a zero at QB?
2. On average, how many points do you lose by (with a zero at QB)?
3. How many wins/year do the top-3 QBs (ADP) average?

Click to continue reading at thehuddle.com

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Five-year Positional Scoring Averages

The chart below is a compilation utilizing the end of season rankings for the SOFA Classic League. SOFA, or Site Owners Fantasy Association scoring is the same scoring that I am using for the Ultimate Drafter Series, that is with the exception of TE receptions which are 1 point/reception in SOFA and 1.5 in the Ultimate Drafter Series.

This chart will be referred to numerous times in articles that I am writing this summer, so I thought it would be a good idea to post it here for people to reference.

To help clarify exactly what you are looking at I’ll use the 356.84 number for QB1.  What that number represents is the average points the quarterback that finished ranked #1 at the end of the season scored.

The following are the scores by year for the #1 QB over the past five years:
2012: 353.74 (Brees)
2011: 409.42 (Rodgers)
2010: 328.32 (Vick)
2009: 344.16 (Rodgers)
2008: 307.22 (Brees)
Average: 356.84

That’s the method that was used to get the averages for this chart.

Positional Rank  Five Year Averages By Position
QB RB WR TE K D/ST
1 356.84 337.91 309.68 253.12 144.20 190.4
2 342.06 306.28 295.90 219.30 135.40 177
3 332.84 297.10 275.10 202.26 129.40 169
4 324.52 286.98 270.12 187.94 125.60 160.2
5 311.62 262.32 262.50 181.68 124.20 159
6 296.24 253.86 260.58 172.24 122.20 156.4
7 289.29 247.96 255.90 165.72 120.20 151
8 280.11 242.68 251.94 160.12 118.20 146
9 277.74 232.58 246.94 154.46 116.00 142.6
10 272.41 229.22 240.44 150.10 114.40 139.8
11 260.71 221.70 234.86 146.24 112.40 134.6
12 256.04 218.60 230.60 139.48 110.40 131.4
13 253.85 216.02 227.20 135.70 108.50 129.2
14 245.05 208.64 225.24 131.20 107.38 127.4
15 241.09 203.24 223.62 126.42 105.80 126.2
16 235.05 198.67 215.18 121.62 104.00 123.8
17 231.23 192.02 210.36 120.30 101.60 121.4
18 222.72 188.72 208.64 119.00 99.80 120.4
19 212.66 185.38 205.90 113.78 99.20 117.4
20 205.49 183.98 200.06 110.20 98.20 115.4
21 199.49 179.22 195.46 104.88 95.60 113.8
22 189.03 175.90 190.94 100.80 94.40 112.2
23 183.49 172.08 186.57 98.88 93.40 110.2
24 179.72 163.12 184.50 94.70 91.00 105
25 170.95 160.78 182.08 91.80 89.20 102
26 156.22 155.36 179.36 88.10 85.00 100.2
27 143.26 152.30 176.52 85.50 83.00 95
28 134.45 150.40 174.42 82.96 81.29 87.8
29 123.96 146.49 172.68 79.24 76.80 86.6
30 114.68 144.38 170.10 76.98 69.80 78.6
31 105.08 141.74 167.52 73.54 65.28 76.4
32 100.98 138.04 166.32 67.58 54.20 66.6
33 134.64 162.00
34 132.32 157.42
35 138.04 156.78
36 126.38 154.22
37 124.08 153.06
38 118.80 150.52
39 115.84 147.30
40 114.30 146.66
41 112.54 145.00
42 109.52 142.77
43 103.04 140.54
44 98.22 139.82
45 97.06 137.66
46 95.26 136.42
47 93.26 135.58
48 92.14 134.64
49 89.04 132.42
50 86.34 130.20
51 84.76 128.40
52 83.48 125.62
53 81.04 124.38
54 78.58 122.46
55 76.96 121.08
56 76.38 119.36
57 73.74 117.70
58 73.20 115.76
59 69.40 114.84
60 65.78 113.90
61 64.54 112.10
62 63.32 110.08
63 61.92 106.34
64 60.98 105.16
65 59.36 103.90
66 58.27 103.38
67 57.44 101.28
68 56.70 98.18
69 54.98 96.92
70 53.62 95.30
71 51.24 94.14
72 50.28 93.13
73 48.20 90.32
74 46.86 89.80
75 45.72 87.88
76 44.96 85.32
77 42.82 84.16
78 41.64 82.76
79 41.14 81.80
80 38.96 79.88
81 37.80 76.00
82 35.54 74.52
83 34.98 74.16
84 33.64 73.54

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Experts Ultimate Drafter Series #1

The next up in the UDS is the Experts Ultimate Drafter Series #1.  Yes, there was an Experts Ultimate Drafter Series that took place pre-draft, but that was a beta that helped to pave the way for the rest of the UDS that will take place this summer.

If you aren’t sure what The Ultimate Drafter Series is you can read about it here.

The following are links to each individual draft being held at MyFantasyLeague.com.  Feel free to follow along.

Draft Links Start Date Start Time
Draft 1 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 2 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 3 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 4 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 5 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 6 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 7 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 8 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 9 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 10 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 11 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern
Draft 12 June 24th 2 p.m. Eastern

The following chart will be updated post-draft with the participants names and their draft slot for each draft.

EUDS#1(Non-Expert/Non-IDP) Draft 1 Draft 2 Draft 3 Draft 4 Draft 5 Draft 6
Drafter 1 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 2 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 3 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 4 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 5 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 6 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 7 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 8 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 9 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 10 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 11 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 12 ? ? ? ? ? ?
EUDS#1(Non-Expert/Non-IDP) Draft 7 Draft 8 Draft 9 Draft 10 Draft 11 Draft 12
Drafter 1 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 2 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 3 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 4 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 5 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 6 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 7 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 8 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 9 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 10 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 11 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Drafter 12 ? ? ? ? ? ?

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

Ultimate Drafter Series #1

Officially I am kicking off the Ultimate Drafter Series today.  Unlike the two pre-draft Beta Ultimate Drafter Series’ all 12 drafts are starting at the same time instead at the rate of two per day.

If you aren’t sure what The Ultimate Drafter Series is you can read about it here.

The following are links to each individual draft being held at MyFantasyLeague.com.  Feel free to follow along.

Draft Links Start Date Start Time
Draft 1 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 2 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 3 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 4 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 5 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 6 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 7 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 8 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 9 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 10 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 11 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 12 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern

The following chart will be updated post-draft with the participants names and their draft slot for each draft.

UDS #1 (Non-Expert/Non-IDP) Draft 1 Draft 2 Draft 3 Draft 4 Draft 5 Draft 6
John “333″ 1 12 2 11 3 10
Dan Overton 2 8 6 4 1 5
Marcus Brown 3 6 4 1 7 11
Kevin Walsh 4 2 3 5 12 9
John Klindworth 5 9 1 8 4 6
Daniel Williams 6 1 7 2 8 3
Paul 7 11 12 10 5 4
Josh Geschke 8 3 9 6 10 7
Brian Hucks 9 10 5 7 6 12
Carl Shute 10 4 11 3 9 2
“D C” 11 7 8 12 2 1
Edward Hitman 12 5 10 9 11 8
UDS #1(Non-Expert/Non-IDP) Draft 7 Draft 8 Draft 9 Draft 10 Draft 11 Draft 12
John “333″ 4 8 5 6 9 7
Dan Overton 3 11 12 9 7 10
Marcus Brown 10 5 2 8 12 9
Kevin Walsh 11 10 8 7 6 1
John Klindworth 12 2 7 3 10 11
Daniel Williams 9 4 10 5 11 12
Paul 8 6 9 1 2 3
Josh Geschke 2 12 4 11 1 5
Brian Hucks 1 3 11 4 8 2
Carl Shute 6 7 1 12 5 8
“D C” 5 9 6 10 3 4
Edward Hitman 7 1 3 2 4 6

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

What Do You Think?

I am in the middle of doing some research for an article that I believe everyone will both enjoy and find helpful.

What I am planning to do is take the results of these polls and work them into the article.  Also, if you post a comment there is a chance I will quote it and/or use it in the article.

BEFORE YOU ANSWER THE POLLS:  What I want to realize is that I want the first answer that pops into your head.  Don’t think about it, don’t analyze it, don’t research it — whatever pops into your head first!

What you are going to find below is three sets of polls that are based on three different types of leagues.  One set is based on 4pt passing TDs with no deductions for interceptions, the second is based on 6pt passing TDs with no deductions for interceptions and lastly an IDP league with 4pt passing TDs and no deductions for interceptions.  Before each set I will link to the scoring system and also show the starting requirements. Each set of polls needs your answer to:

1.  How many games do you think you would win in a 13 game regular season if you had to take a zero at QB every week versus a full strength team?

2.  Assuming you lose because of the zero at your QB spot, how many points on average do you think you would lose by?

3.  How many games do you think the top two QBs (based on ADP) would win on average in a 13 game regular season?

To the polls we go…

CLARIFICATION FOR THE 3rd POLL IN EACH SET:  The question is how many games on average a fantasy owner of a top-3 QB (based on ADP) would win in a 13 game regular season.

This set of polls is based on the SOFA  (Site Owners Fantasy Association) Classic league rules.
Scoring (4pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(10 total): 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K & 1D/ST

SOFA Classic
SOFA Classic
SOFA Classic

This set of polls is based on a league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) that I selected randomly at MFL.  Note that the only thing that wasn’t random was that I was looking for a league with 6pt passing TDs, no deductions for interceptions and had at least nine starters.  I’d also like to point out that league spelled damn wrong, not me.
Scoring (6pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(9 total): 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K & 1D/ST

Best Dam Fantasy League Period!
Best Dam Fantasy League Period!
Best Dam Fantasy League Period!

This last set is based on the SOFA IDP league.  One thing I want to point out is that the past two years we added an extra DB to the starting requirements — going from 15 to 16.  So for the first 5 yrs worth of research I have done for this league the total starters would be decreased by 1.  I’ll reference the average for the full seven years as well as the differences between the first five years to the last two years when I publish the final article.  But for this exercise base your guesses off the starting requirements from the first five years.
Scoring (4pt passing TDs) Starting requirements(15 total): 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB

SOFA IDP
SOFA IDP
SOFA IDP

Thank you for taking the time to read and hopefully participate in the polls.  Don’t forget, feel free to comment and there is a chance I might use it in the article.

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

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